Iranian (S)Elections

Iran unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards is turning theocracy into military dictatorship

Iran unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards is turning theocracy into military dictatorship

Ali Alfoneh's seminal treatise on IRGC, its history, influence and possible future.

Watch video clip here




Speaker Biographies

Ali Alfoneh is a former resident fellow at AEI and a doctoral candidate at the department of political science at the University of Copenhagen. His research areas include civil-military relations in the Middle East, with a special focus on Iran and the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the politics of the Islamic Republic. Previously, Alfoneh was a research fellow at the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College and taught political economy at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Southern Denmark.


Karim Sadjadpour is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He joined Carnegie after four years as the chief Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Washington, DC, and Tehran, where he conducted dozens of interviews with senior Iranian officials and hundreds more with Iranian intellectuals, clerics, dissidents, paramilitaries, businessmen, students, activists, and youth, among others. He is a regular contributor to BBC TV and Radio, CNN, National Public Radio, PBS NewsHour, and Al-Jazeera. He has also appeared on the Today Show, Charlie Rose, Fox News Sunday, and the Colbert Report, among others. He contributes regularly to publications such as The Economist, The Washington Post, The New York Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Foreign Policy. Frequently called upon to brief US, EU, and Asian officials about Middle Eastern affairs, he regularly testifies before Congress; has lectured at Harvard University, Princeton University, and Stanford University; and has been the recipient of numerous academic awards, including a Fulbright scholarship.

 

گاهشمار تمام سنگي 2500-3000 ساله

 

 

بنايي با معماري‌ خاصي در «نقش رستم» وجود دارد كه از زمان حمله اعراب به ايران به اشتباه، نام «كعبه زرتشت» را به آن دادند، چون كاربرد واقعي آن را نمي‌دانستند. آن زمان فكر مي‌كردند كه هر ديني بايد براي خود بُتكده يا عبادتگاهي داشته باشد، براي همين فكر كردند اين بنا هم مركزيت يا كعبه زرتشتيان است.

در ديوار داخل اين ساختمان لغت «کعبه» حکاکي شده است. در کتاب‌هاي زرتشتي آمده است که حضرت زرتشت «زاراتشترا» در اين محل، نيايش مي‌کرده است. اعراب، لغت کعبه را از پارسي پهلوي گرفتند. همان‌طور که در زمان داريوش کبير به كشور «عمان» امروزي «مکه» مي‌گفتند؛ بنابراين كلمه مكه نيز فارسي است.

در محاسبه روز نوروز در کتب زرتشتي نوشته شده است که زرتشت در اين رصدخانه، محل شروع نوروز را محاسبه کرد. نوروز در روز اول فروردين از محلي شروع مي‌شود که اولين اشعه آفتاب در آنجا بتابد. بر اساس برآورد گاهنامه زرتشت، هر 700 سال يک‌بار نوروز از ايران شروع مي‌شود. آخرين‌باري که نوروز از ايران شروع شد، 300 سال پيش بود. در سال 1387، نوروز از پاريس و بروکسل و در سال 1388 ار تورنتو و نيويورک شروع شد. سال آينده هم نوروز از محلي بين آلاسکا و هاوايي شروع خواهد شد.

از زمان حمله اعراب به ايران تا به امروز، يعني قرن بيست و يكم ميلادي، كاربرد و تعريف اين بنا كشف نشده بود. خوشبختانه پژوهشگر ايراني «رضا مرادي غياث‌آبادي» كه تحقيقات فراواني در زمينه ايران باستان داشته است، نتيجه كشف خود را در كتابي به نام «نظام گاهشماري در چارطاقي‌هاي ايران» توسط انتشارات «نويد شيراز» به چاپ ر

Reza Pahlavi clarifying some  issues with regards to Shoraye Melli, invitations, the eventual committee and other relevant issues.

Prince Reza Pahlavi speaking at IWP - Democratic Transition in Iran Conference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpC5nKUzlUk

A desperate regime

Is the regime getting more desperate as they see the noose tighten around their necks? With the increase in pressures from sanctions becoming a bane of the regime's existence, at least economically, and the newfound hope among the people with the beginning of a strong and popular National Council (Shora Melli) which has Reza Pahlavi's endorsement and perhaps a realization that the regime may be too far from achieving their goal of finally possessing a nuclear weapon, its top echelons especially Seyed Ali Khamenei have become more belligerent and agnostic in their approach and speech. This new aggression and abrasiveness was seen in his threatening words towards Israel and talk of demolition of Tel Aviv and Haifa.

One may see this as foolish saber rattling given the disparity in Iran's military capacity and Israel's (and by default, at the very least American, if not NATO's or some sort of allied forces). But we must not forget the regime sees a great opportunity in creating a war where not only it hopes to rally some support from Iranians but also a chance to use this as a way to cleanse their ranks of unsavory people such as Ahmadinejad's faction or those who may support even a slight deviation from their path. The bonus would be an excuse to insist the miserable economy is not the result of not only sanctions but also war, to the less informed populace mostly in rural areas of the country.

This reckless and destructive tendency to freely threaten our territorial integrity and well being of Iranians only to sustain their regime a few months more, and basically risking nearly everything in Iran in the process is nothing new. But the fear arises from the increasing chances of such conflicts actually coming to pass. This may be pre-empted and a war date may be advanced by a very reckless behavior and action by the more ideological and hardline factions among Sepah (IRGC) and perhaps Khamenei himself.

گفتگوی شاهزاده رضا پهلوی با شهرام همایون

This interview will particularly put to rest all the falacies and spins created after Mr. Pahlavi's interview with the German Focus Online magazine, where the German media outlet twisted and spun his remarks and comments to the extent that many regime apologists and a few others who are intent on distraction and weakening of formation of a truly national committee, use these very spins and falsified comments to create a front against Pahlavi and therefore, the creation of the national coalition.

Regime change or free elections?

The matter of “free elections” versus “regime change” has been circulating heavily among various opposition groups. I believe the matter of regime change is quite clear and self-explanatory. However the doubts arise when we talk about “free elections” in the Islamic republic under the control of Khamenei and his death-squad, IRGC. The proponents of free elections bring talking points such as observation and conduction of these elections by an impartial international body like the United Nations, permission for creation and campaign of political parties and so on and so forth. They claim in such a situation, the outcome will only lead to dissolution of the present regime … therefore it is necessary to keep any talk of regime change out of any dialogue.  In other words, a soft or velvet revolution amidst the present regime where through popular vote and will it makes way for a democratic government.

But what one claims based on a hypothesis is one thing, actual past experience and practicality of the issue is a whole different bowl of soup altogether. Countless elections in the past 33 years only point to one thing which is the regime’s incapacity and unwillingness to cede control to the people of Iran. From the way it conducts the process of election to the method of vote count and further announcements, all prove this fact. But this is besides the clinching point that such a regime that doesn’t hesitate to resort to murder and torture of any voice of dissent or call for minimal freedom and sees its survival only through spread of fear and violence at any cost will never accept to place its fate and existence on a process “free election”, especially if conducted by an international body, where it knows the result would mean its demise.

How are these “reformists” planning to convince the likes of Khamenei to agree to such a fate that only leads to his fall and end of his beloved Islamic Republic? Surely these “intelligent” minds of the reformist camp have considered this matter, given their background of being a part of this regime for many years and decades. Surely they are privy of how desperately the regime has clung to power and what extents it is willing to go in order to retain this seat of power and survive. What is their plan in cajoling a murderer to not only surrender, but also open himself up for punishment for decades of crime?

Therefore, while the talk of “free election” is a very attractive and civilized prospect, at least on paper, unfortunately reality tells a very different tale. Chances are the Mullahs in Iran will vehemently resist and refuse to allow even a glimmer of hope for change in the political and social structure of Iran and outright refuse to allow such an election to take place. What then? What is the plan-B of the reformists to find a way out of this misery for the people of Iran? Wait and see? Again? Just as they did during Khatami's era? Therefore allow more time for these parasites to extract as much life and resources out of Iran and Iranians?

Are they not aware their irrational insistence on an impossibility only feeds into the division of the opposition forces and the only winner in this is the criminal regime in Iran?

Iran's state run and state controlled TV station, IRIB, announced the result of a poll conducted among the people of Iran on the subject of the regime's nuclear program. The surprising thing (depending on which side you belong to) is they actually pronounced an overwhelming majority of people (about 63%. More on this later) did not want the continuation of the nuclear program. That was surprising if one had followed the lies and false claims of the very same media on the popularity of the program among the common folk.

But given the start of the more severe sanctions on Iran's oil by the European Union and a few other states by July First that has led to drastic cuts in purchase of Iranian oil as well as insuring of its oil and oil tankers by several countries, like India and even China, one may not be as surprised to see the regime buckle and make a desperate attempt to fabricate an excuse to give in and surrender to the will of the international community and stop its nuclear ambitions. It would have been a great loss of face if they revealed the truth that these sanctions are and will be breaking the back of Iran's economy and that is reason enough for them to give up enrichment of Uranium plans. So they resort to the more immature tact of fabricating a popular poll among the citizens who made the decision to force the government to give in and stop the process.

This sheds light on the severe impact the sanctions are having on the revenues of the regime. In recent days several high ranking clergy and officials, including the supreme leader, Khamenei, have tried to distract and divert the blame for Iran's crumbling economy and its currency in free-fall (Dollar breached another barrier of 2060 Toomans!) on the evil western machinery that is the cause of all the economic misery in Iran. Certainly not their own incompetence or disastrous policies on import and its impact on indigenous industry and agriculture! So now they are scrambling to divert the blame on all and sundry because they know when we feel the full impact of the new sanctions, people may not be in mood to listen to excuses or propaganda.


On the issue of regime's love for "63%":
What is this love and insistence on the number 63 by the regime? Cant they come up with another number? It seems this number appeals to them as a legitimate and convincing enough to show support of people for their decisions, elections, ...! What, a number lower than 63 like 60 does not convey enough support of the people and 67 may be too much of a gamble and may expose their zeal in fabrication?

Ahmadinejad was supposed to have received about 63% of the people's votes. Something that a very large majority of people had problem accepting and a number that was talked about weeks BEFORE the start of those elections!

Next was the parliamentary elections which was generally boycotted by the people (fresh from their wounds inflicted from the recent presidential farse of an election), that never held the IRIB or the government back in claiming about 63% participation by the people. Something that they translate as popular support of the people for the system!

More cloak and dagger offensives from Israel

Few Israeli officials’ recent claims and even tepid statements with regards to Iran’s present nuclear capability and its future threat served to surprise many in the Middle East and the world for that matter. It was indeed such a sudden pivot from the more hardline, dogged offensive stance they have taken in the past few years. For example a Israeli military top brass claiming Israel should not be too worried about Iran’s capability came as a shock to pundits who were used to the contrary views coming out of Israel, always making too much of a little matter. But the new revelation that a newer, more dangerous and sophisticated virus has been unleashed mainly on Iran, which has been gathering info and data since 2010 just puts all the sudden “change of heart” into a new perspective.

The virus, known as “Flame” is found to be extremely complex and sophisticated that narrows its creation to only less than a handful of countries, one of which is Israel.

Therefore, inspite of contradictory statements, some shouted, some merely whispered from Israel, it can be safely assumed that they are hard at work at delaying and interrupting the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions ... albeit clandestinely and through covert ops. This may not be a bad news for the Iranian population (and not very good for the regime) as such covert actions serve to delay the more threatening and dangerous option of going to war which would mean human casualties. 

Ahmed Shahid's report to the UN

Ahmed Shahid's report to the UN and Larijani's shameless and brazen reply and denials.
Ahmed Shahid is the UN human rights special investigator assigned to Iran, who so far, has not been permitted to visit Iran or communicate with any of the dissidents or prisoners inside Iran. Despite the fact that the UN Human Rights Commission did nominate Mr. Shahid according to the criteria forced by the regime, which insisted the investigator be a male, muslim and not from a western nation.

(make sure to toggle to the beginning of the clip)

http://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/webcast/2012/03/iran-concerned-country-id-on-situation-in-iran-30th-meeting.html

Is there no limit to this regime's shamelessness?
It comes as no surprise to see Larijani's confused and irrelevant replies to the valid points Mr. Shahid brought forth.

The government wants everyone to know they were caught off guard by the attack to the British embassy, and the incident was not orchestrated by any factions within the regime. That  their security forces were "overwhelmed" and just couldnt handle the sheer force of the 250-300 Basiji crowd intent on destruction of property. And yet, there are those pictures all over the net, available of how the same security apparatus "handled" the innocent and unarmed protesters just 2 years ago:

2009 -

And 2011 -

The double standards that was clear to one and all and prompted many jabs at the regime's inability to hide its involvment in the latest fisaco

Which entity or group gains the most from the attack on the British embassy?

Given the historical precedence of this event (79’s US embassy occupation) and the fact that nearly all those students who participated in that event have expressed their regret and admitted the costly price Iran has paid for their thoughtless act (many of whom are now in the prisons of this regime, under pressure), nothing good ever comes out of such acts for the country and its people. So who would be the ultimate winner of this political fiasco?

Aside from the war-mongers in the west who will definitely use this to step up their lobby for war with Iran, Internally, I believe it is the IRGC (the repressive Revolutionary Guard Corp), even far more than the paranoid supreme leader or the ultra conservatives, who will benefit from this mess. With more isolation of Iran, IRGC’s hands would be even deeper in matters like smuggling of goods, trade deals and contracts. With their hands in nearly every trade agreement with the outside world, as well as the now-proven countless smuggling ports under their control, they would strengthen their monopoly over Iranian markets.

And we must not forget an eventual war would also strengthen the hardliners in the regime as well as serve the goals of IRGC, whose commanders have been provoking and itching for a fight with outlandish daily statements of how they can crush this enemy or cripple that country that only find purchase among the more immature and delusional sects of people. An example of which, below, where Sardar Naghdi of Basij forces boasts about attacking American forces everywhere believing US's inability to respond or retaliate:


Not to mention this attack serves in delivering a significant blow to the Ahmadinejad’s faction who were busy with their foreign relation initiatives, trying to somehow carve a tiny bit of support to wedge open Iran's doors to the rest of the world.

However, the most ridiculous is the reaction and statements of some of the western countries who still have not understood it is impossible to make this regime see sense or be a responsible member of international community. Some of these politicians and officials still hold onto their incredulous and naïve stance that conversation and dialogue with this regime would result in anything near normalcy of relations or behavoral change of the Islamic officials! As if all their efforts in recent years have borne fruit or made any dent to the ruling mullahs’ attitude or belligerence.

They seem quite incapable of comprehending this regime is beyond reform and the only way to achieve peace in the region and prevent a nuclear arms race in this volatile Middle East is to have an Iran that is democratic, run by its people and accountable to its people. With a responsible government in Iran to its people, all these points of contention with the region and the world will automatically be solved. So instead of trying to do the impossible, which is making this theocratic, totalitarian regime see sense, all the world has to do is put its support behind the democratic opposition groups.

History repeats itself ... unfortunately

This was like history unfolding itself right in front of our eyes. A group of Basiji thugs and hooligans, under the guise of “university students” attacked and swarmed the British embassy in Tehran in response to Britain’s talk of sanctioning Iran’s Central Bank as a part of their comprehensive effort to rein in the regime’s pursuit of nuclear bomb.

Let me start with the fact that usually almost none of these people are ‘students’ (defined as individuals in pursuit of science and knowledge in an institute of higher learning). These are the militia and pressure groups routinely used by the regime and factions within the regime (mostly on the side of Khamenei and ultra-conservative mullahs) as their fascistic arm to do the jobs that cant be done legally or under the umbrella of law. Even if some of these individuals possess a University Id, they are those who have been strategically ‘placed’ in the institutes to monitor and spy and if needed, be the insiders for the regime to ‘handle’ genuine students’ movements from within. Therefore labeling these purchased hooligans ‘students’ is the regime’s way of discrediting the real students and student movements.

It came as no surprise when one of the first photos that came out of this event showed a well known IRGC commander - Qods Force division, a certain Karim Jalali who was immediately identified by the Iranian activists and exposed here.

The second matter of note is to address the ambiguity of the foreign press who, as usual, are muddled and still naïve enough to not have understood the mechanics of politics in Iran. Someone with a little more time invested in Iranian politics would easily spot the factions behind this (no matter how desperately these ‘students’ want to claim they are not connected to any political faction). Khamenei and the ultra-conservatives and the ruthless IRGC stand to gain the most from this as this method of Political-Suicide suits their agenda of isolating Iran even more as well as Khamenei’s inherent paranoia of everything and everyone especially the threat of improving the relationships with the west. So despite the insistence by the networks and pundits, this move has been well planned, orchestrated and supported by the supreme leader’s gang.

And if there was any need for more proof, we have the security forces who were in charge of protecting the sovereignty of embassies merely stood aside and became bystanders as the small horde of Basiji militia attacked and invaded the embassy. The same security forces who showed extreme brutality and barbarism in their methods of dealing with un-armed innocent Iranian protesters on the streets  during the disputed elections demonstrations, were overwhelmed and incapacitated by a gang of 250-300 ‘students’? Really?

After a while and much damage to the compound, the security forces managed to expel most of the attackers (regime’s media relations must have been very active) only to be ‘over-powered’ once more and this time there was talk of taking 6 people as hostage. Although the news on this hostage taking has been confirmed and denied, which leaves it an ambiguous matter to be resolved later. The report of the 6 hostages was seen in the state agencies, but were immediately removed, most probably by higher order as there must have been some frantic political haggling and arm wrestling between the conservatives and Ahmadinejad’s group.

On the international front this bode very badly for Iran as well as the regime. The European Union was the first to condemn this act with promise of further and harsher response against Iran. Did the regime strategists even consider the ramifications of such a move and their relationship to Europe where they have extensive trade deals with?

You know Iran was in real trouble when their usual staunch allies and partners-in-crime, Russia and even China (the unscrupulous government that usually turns a blind eye to nearly any atrocity and crime as long as there is some profit, direct or indirect, for them) condemned this act. This also plays right into the hands of the neo-cons and the war-mongers who have been banging their war drums lately, but with this, the drums will be much lauder than usual.

Letters from Iran - An Aljazeera documentary

Letters from Iran - General - Al Jazeera English

The latest explosive disclosure and war of words on the regime's or at least a faction of the regime's hand in assassination of the Saudi ambassador and bombing of a restaurant in Washignton DC resulting in a change to more aggressive stance of Obama towards Iran and the possibility of tougher UN snactions and even a referral to the Security Council seem to coincide with another key development in the region. And that is formation of both Libyan and Syrian National Councils who pose and offer alternatives to the world for the ruthless, brutal governments of those countries. Could an IRANIAN National Council be in the offing, which could gather momentum with the new US and UN stances?

Ahmadinejad's New York trip a total failure on all fronts

Unlike the last few years, Ahmadinejad's annual visit to New York lacked the fan-fare and publicity blitz his aids used to whip up in and among the US media. A major reason for this could be that even the slow US media has finally realized the true source of power does not lie in the presidency, but the leadership. And with the recent clashes, some public and some not so public, between the leadership or Khamenei's factions and Ahmadinejad's group, his position has shown to be of a weakened, lame-duck president who is merely flailing about and trying to simply matter. So his primary and most precious objective of being in the lime-light of the world media was taken away from him.

The release of Shane Bauer and Joss Fattal from Iranian prisons, as expected many months ago coincided with his visit. Perhaps to paint a more humane and peace-loving picture of him. But even that fell on its face. As if keeping the poor innocent Americans for this many years imprisoned in Iran was simply a little misunderstanding that the regime expected people to forget and forgive. But soon after their release, both Fattal and Bauer released statements relating their horrifying experiences inside the prison, how in their cells they heard the pleas and cries of Iranians being tortured and how irrational was the regime's baseless claims for their capture. Any hope of gaining some world sympathy among those with minimal intellect evaporated with this statement.

And to make this issue even more ridiculous is the judiciary's final findings and rule which found the three Americans to be "spies". A charge that carries the most severe punishments in most countries, let alone in this regime. So this charade of conducting a court and charges against the Americans made their release, of course after accepting a $1.5 Million "bail" from Oman on behalf of the United States, a hilariously pathetic display on the part of the judiciary and the whole regime. If they were "spies" how on earth do they get bail and are allowed to travel outside the country? And if they were innocent that justified their release, why were they imprisoned for nearly three years and where is the explanation for this?

And as if all this mess was not enough for Ahmadinejad, he had to cancel a few dinners and a couple of pre-arranged meets with students and universities due to the mounting pressure of the Human Rights activists in New York. Well, he also had to talk to a lot of empty chairs during his speech in the UN. But seeing that every year he is greeted with a 90% empty hall, I'm assuming that didnt really shock him.
During the visit he seems to have indicated his willingness to a more constructive dialogue and line of contact with the US administration and authorities on various fronts. A move that saw immediate and harsh reprisal from both Khamenei and the IRGC in Iran that simply dismissed this as foolish and unlikely. This only underlined the fact that his authority and word carries very little within the system anymore.

Bringing along an entourage of a 100 people, mostly comprising of his family and their extended families, his aids and some cabinet members, their families and basically multiple dozens of people who had no business to be there in the first place, was reflected in the Iranian media and many questioned why he had to take the extended families of people whose duties and job descriptions had no relation to a president's UN speech. Some speculate he brought along people like Mashaei and Baghaei, both of whom were targeted by the conservatives and had been on the receiving end of months of accusations and attacks. Perhaps Ahmadinejad was afraid his close aids (Mashaei, Baghaei and Rahimi) would have been arrested had he left them in Tehran.

This only reinvigorated those members of parliament who were seeking his impeachment vote. An impending impeachment that still hangs over his head. It has not occurred yet only because the leader, Khamenei, sees his over-exuberant endorsement of Ahmadinejad soon after the elections may eventually see many fingers pointed at him and his inability to choose correctly. But all these have not been kept away from the world media. Perhaps another reason he wasn’t well received as before.

Thus was the latest nightmare of a visit by Ahmadinejad to his beloved United States and New York. He and his group may not let on, but they have taken quite a serious beating in recent months and this visit not only didn’t help, but made matters even worse back at home. 2 years left of his tenure and he has turned into a true lame-duck.

Gaddafi's fort about to crumble

This was the picture Mere months ago with the four happy dictators enoying their last few happy moments, unbeknownst to them.

(Tunisia's Bin-Ali, Yemen's Ali saleh, Libya's Gaddafi and Egypt's Mobarak)

Tonight dictators like Syria’s Bashar Al-Asad and Iran’s Ali Khamenei will rest their heads that much more uneasy on the pillow, sleep will come to them a bit later and will have that much more to worry about their upcoming fate.

Russia shifts her stance on Iran … yet again!

Following the meeting between Iran’s foreign minister, Salehi and the Russian security council secretary, Patrushev on August 16th, the Russians disclosed their plan to re-introduce the talks on Iran’s nuclear energy program with the P5+1 in their upcoming meeting. The plan of step by step resolution to the conundrum was proposed by the Russian foreign secretary, Lavrov, last year and is to be looked at once again.

Knowing the behavior of the regime in Tehran, and their utter desperation to find some relief on any of the fronts (external and internal) at this point of time, one can only guess the amount and nature of concessions they have offered the Russians to pursue this futile matter once more. Could it be that on their necks they feel the breath of a revolution in Syria, their sole ally in the region, that forces them to look for any alleviation of pressure? Could it be their dire domestic squabbles among their conservative factions that have been slowly spinning out of control? Could it be the ever increasing pressures exerted from international sanctions that have played havoc with the economy, banking, finance and even foreign relations (reports of pending and blocked payments by India, South Korea and even China and Iran’s inability to effect these transactions due to the banking sanctions imposed)? The question of wholesale concessions to Russia only arises from the fact that until a few months ago, the relations between Tehran and Kremlin was at a recent low and quite cold with Russia’s refusal to deliver the S-300 missile defense system to Tehran and a few supportive nods to the United States’ moves to tighten the pressure on Tehran. The very same Russia who has yet to complete Bushehr’s nuclear plant and solve the problems it has been facing, having taken extraordinary number of years to finish the project despite Tehran’s urging.

Whatever the reason for these concessions, the regime, irrational and desperate, is clearly groping for any refuge or island of relative positivity in a stormy sea. Does that mean they will accede and accept the conditions put forth in the upcoming talks and show leniency in their stance on the nuclear issue? It would be futile to hold one’s breathe as they have shown their belligerence in dealing with this issue if their previous brinksmanship is anything to go by.

Expansion of power and influence by IRGC continues

Rostam Ghasemi, an IRGC commander (already under international sanctions for his involvement in clandestine acts with regards to the nuclear energy) has been proposed to take over the helm at the crucial Oil Ministry, and by default, the head of OPEC, by none other than Ahmadinejad. He is the head of Khatam-ol-anbiah (a significant industrial and financial arm of IRGC) and has been a party in many oil and gas contracts won by IRGC. Although he does not yet have the mandate of Majlis and the members of the parliament have to accept his candidacy.

Being included in sanctions may restrict much of his movement outside of Iran to perhaps very few countries, which may prove to be a hindrance when considering the duties of the head of OPEC.

Is this Ahmadinejad’s way of once again cozying up to the IRGC and in a way bribing them to garner their support in the bigger power struggle between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei? How will this play in the coming months? Will the guards or at least a portion of it abandon Khamenei and side with Ahmadinejad/Mashaei faction?

Or could this be an act of appeasement by Ahmadinejad towards the supreme leader to alleviate the tensions between the two sides? Especially at a time of turmoil when the internal squabbles and struggles have aided the opposition.