The latest bazaar strike in Tehran due to a proposed 30-70% hike in taxes, and the subsequent back down by the government to revert the rates to the previous years’ shows how weak and incapable the regime is when faced with a collective civil disobedience. Traditionally, bazaar has been wielding great power in Iranian politics, despite keeping a low profile and behind the scenes nature of this influence. And the Ahmadinejad’s latest miscalculations borne out of the rapidly depleting government revenues, and a budget deficit of over 40%,to increase the tax on merchants is yet another indication of how incompetent his advisors have been in devising paths to make up for the ever decreasing government coffers, a direct result of the sanctions.
The Ahmadinejad’s illegitimate government has been desperate in finding ways to lower the deficit and has been haphazardly aiming at various targets. Primarily, they had proposed lifting of the subsidies. But facing massive apprehension from the population, they have postponed the implementation of them. Then they targeted another source of tremendous wealth, which is the Azad Universities, affiliated with Ahmadinejad’s nemesis, Hashemi Rafsanjani. With weeks of threats and use of their plain-clothed militia to apply pressure, proving impotent, finally steps in the supreme leader to quell the simmering pressure cooker and effectively deny yet another route for replenishing the growing hole in the budget. And the Bazaar incident is just one more in a series of signals of Ahmadinejad’s utter desperation.
But what the freedom movement and activists can learn from this is when faced with a resolute, collective section of the society, it is the regime that stands in the vulnerable position. A lesson that can map the future plans of the movement as we move to the next phase of wide-spread strikes, civil disobedience in all forms, delays and refusal in payment of utility bills, …etc.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Iranian "aid" flotilla or another provocation tool?
Following the regime’s tendency of sacrificing all and sundry in Iran, in order to stay in power, it announced it is sending a flotilla of supposed activists and aid to Gaza. It doesn’t take much to understand this decision is hardly borne out of the regime’s desire to help the besieged populace of Gaza, rather its perverted tendency to stir up trouble and provoke confrontation with the international community.
With Israel’s firm declaration of their intention to stop any aid flotilla from reaching Gaza, the Islamic regime’s immature brinksmanship was in full view as they suddenly made a 180 degree turn around conjured up a nonsensical “technical difficulty” as the reason for their change of plans!
With Israel’s firm declaration of their intention to stop any aid flotilla from reaching Gaza, the Islamic regime’s immature brinksmanship was in full view as they suddenly made a 180 degree turn around conjured up a nonsensical “technical difficulty” as the reason for their change of plans!
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Iran for sale
The Islamic regime’s 180 degree turn around and acceptance of an exchange of nuclear fuel outside of Iran and involvement of both Brazil and Turkey absorbed a lot of media coverage around the globe with variety of views and opinions surrounding this event. The illegitimate government of Iran has gone so far to actually claim this is a major victory and a political coup. However, in the midst of all the hoopla, some have forgotten the very same deal was offered by the west months ago which was vehemently struck down and rejected as the coup government insisted on two ‘irrevocable’ conditions. Those ‘irrevocable’ conditions were 1) the exchange will take place within Iran and not outside, and 2) the exchange will take place at the same time with no time gap in between. This belligerent attitude was met especially since France was a part of those talks and that period saw one the lowest points in Franco-Iranian relations.
However, the latest deal does exactly that, which is to have the exchange process carried out in Turkey and not Iran, and the enriched Uranium to be delivered at a later date after Iran’s dispatch of its low enriched reserves!! Some “irrevocable” conditions!
Did the Islamic dictatorship somehow manage to keep France out then? No. Since the type of enriched Uranium that can be used in the Tehran’s reactor is prepared and available in only two countries in the world; France and Argentina. Argentina has already announced it will not be a party in any deal involving Iran (reference to the bombings occurred during Rafsanjani’s presidency and IRGC’s involvement). So eventually the Iranian reserves have to be sent to France and it is the French high enriched Uranium that would fuel Tehran’s reactor.
So basically months have been wasted and much initiative lost to only go back to square one and finally accept the kind of deal that was initially offered by the west! But what could be the reason? This brings up the usual tactic of distraction and diversion of attention of the world from the regime’s greater fears and crimes.
And they have plenty of atrocities to hide and much to worry about. In recent weeks it has stepped up its execution of dissidents and political prisoners, using all sorts of labels to justify them. From executing a person who had merely sent money to his brother in Iraq, accused as a membership of the Mojahedin Khalgh group, to belonging to a pro-monarchist to supposed separatists when in reality all these people were guilty of was they had spoken against the totalitarian regime or demanded a free society. Not to mention with the anniversary of the fraud elections that resulted in the coup approaching, the regime knows it offers the opposition forces renewed purpose to once again take to the streets. Therefore, this deceitful government has much to hide and plenty to divert the world’s attention from as now the world media focuses on this deal and its supposed repercussions.
What hope does it have to be a lasting deal? Borne of a false pretense and founded on deceit and considering the coup government’s well known brinksmanship, its past record of wasting time, abandoning agreements or sudden change of mind it should not be a surprise to see this deal get filed along many other abandoned ones as soon as the coup anniversary is passed or it has achieved its momentary respite. In fact chances of this happening is far more than seeing a cooperative regime that surrenders its most useful instrument of camouflage and media weapon. Let us not forget how many times they have used the ‘nuclear program’ to divert the world attention and focus from its internal turmoil.
So why did the leaders of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan and Brazil, Mr. Lula Da Silva accept to be party to a deal that gambles on their political capital and reputation? The answer becomes more clear when we consider the over 300+ contingent of businessmen and financial personalities that accompanied Lula Da Silva’s visit which may see an eight to ten fold increase of business deals, investment and transactions between Iran and Brazil. Turkey also sees a potential increase of trade from its present $350 Million to close to a rumored $2 Billion which ensures the Turkish goods flooding the Iranian markets (much like the low quality imports from China) which in turn will spell doom for Iran’s already weakened (no thanks to the Chinese) indigenous industry and agricultural sectors! The sort of generous pay-off that this regime is well known to freely offer to anyone who is ready to help maintain its illegitimate hold on the country or help its ulterior motives.
Turkey has the added incentive as it tries to have a more meaningful presence and impact in the region, while continuing a palpable shift to a more religious and Islamic form of society, especially since it has little hope of being included in the European Union before several years from today, therefore shelving its European ambitions. It has been bolstering its contact and influence in Middle East from the overhaul of its relations with Israel and expansion of trade and political proximity to Iran. But what price one’s political reputation in Brasilia or Ankara gambling on the word of a regime that refuses to uphold its own laws and dictates, let alone deny itself a major tool of distraction?
At the same time the most crucial elements of Iran's nuclear adventurism has not been addressed in this deal, as its intention to enrich more Uranium to a higher grade is kept out of the agreement and it remains a great source of contention between the west and Iran. In other words, the regime still holds its nuclear card in hand, despite its politically naive attempts to portray a different picture of itself to the world as one who has become lenient and cooperative.
However, the latest deal does exactly that, which is to have the exchange process carried out in Turkey and not Iran, and the enriched Uranium to be delivered at a later date after Iran’s dispatch of its low enriched reserves!! Some “irrevocable” conditions!
Did the Islamic dictatorship somehow manage to keep France out then? No. Since the type of enriched Uranium that can be used in the Tehran’s reactor is prepared and available in only two countries in the world; France and Argentina. Argentina has already announced it will not be a party in any deal involving Iran (reference to the bombings occurred during Rafsanjani’s presidency and IRGC’s involvement). So eventually the Iranian reserves have to be sent to France and it is the French high enriched Uranium that would fuel Tehran’s reactor.
So basically months have been wasted and much initiative lost to only go back to square one and finally accept the kind of deal that was initially offered by the west! But what could be the reason? This brings up the usual tactic of distraction and diversion of attention of the world from the regime’s greater fears and crimes.
And they have plenty of atrocities to hide and much to worry about. In recent weeks it has stepped up its execution of dissidents and political prisoners, using all sorts of labels to justify them. From executing a person who had merely sent money to his brother in Iraq, accused as a membership of the Mojahedin Khalgh group, to belonging to a pro-monarchist to supposed separatists when in reality all these people were guilty of was they had spoken against the totalitarian regime or demanded a free society. Not to mention with the anniversary of the fraud elections that resulted in the coup approaching, the regime knows it offers the opposition forces renewed purpose to once again take to the streets. Therefore, this deceitful government has much to hide and plenty to divert the world’s attention from as now the world media focuses on this deal and its supposed repercussions.
What hope does it have to be a lasting deal? Borne of a false pretense and founded on deceit and considering the coup government’s well known brinksmanship, its past record of wasting time, abandoning agreements or sudden change of mind it should not be a surprise to see this deal get filed along many other abandoned ones as soon as the coup anniversary is passed or it has achieved its momentary respite. In fact chances of this happening is far more than seeing a cooperative regime that surrenders its most useful instrument of camouflage and media weapon. Let us not forget how many times they have used the ‘nuclear program’ to divert the world attention and focus from its internal turmoil.
So why did the leaders of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan and Brazil, Mr. Lula Da Silva accept to be party to a deal that gambles on their political capital and reputation? The answer becomes more clear when we consider the over 300+ contingent of businessmen and financial personalities that accompanied Lula Da Silva’s visit which may see an eight to ten fold increase of business deals, investment and transactions between Iran and Brazil. Turkey also sees a potential increase of trade from its present $350 Million to close to a rumored $2 Billion which ensures the Turkish goods flooding the Iranian markets (much like the low quality imports from China) which in turn will spell doom for Iran’s already weakened (no thanks to the Chinese) indigenous industry and agricultural sectors! The sort of generous pay-off that this regime is well known to freely offer to anyone who is ready to help maintain its illegitimate hold on the country or help its ulterior motives.
Turkey has the added incentive as it tries to have a more meaningful presence and impact in the region, while continuing a palpable shift to a more religious and Islamic form of society, especially since it has little hope of being included in the European Union before several years from today, therefore shelving its European ambitions. It has been bolstering its contact and influence in Middle East from the overhaul of its relations with Israel and expansion of trade and political proximity to Iran. But what price one’s political reputation in Brasilia or Ankara gambling on the word of a regime that refuses to uphold its own laws and dictates, let alone deny itself a major tool of distraction?
At the same time the most crucial elements of Iran's nuclear adventurism has not been addressed in this deal, as its intention to enrich more Uranium to a higher grade is kept out of the agreement and it remains a great source of contention between the west and Iran. In other words, the regime still holds its nuclear card in hand, despite its politically naive attempts to portray a different picture of itself to the world as one who has become lenient and cooperative.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Ahmadinejad's letter to Obama
Ahmadinejad has sent a letter to President Obama, supposedly offering a solution to all the United States’ woes along with a few warnings. This letter only reinforces the belief that the Islamic regime is on its last tethers and is actually frightful of various scenarios predicted for its near future by outside as well as internal elements. This may be a sign of desperation in their part as they see their allies slowly but surely are won by the west, starting with Russia and now, China who has been more inclined to align its comments with the US and Europeans than before, to even Ahmadinejad’s supposed brother-in-arms, Chavez who has kicked up Venezuela’s oil production (like other states such as Saudi Arabia) to cover for the declining sales of Iranian oil, to exclusion of Iran in an OPEC-style committee on natural gas, while Iran holds the world’s second largest reserves of natural gas.
Aside from the audacity of trying to dictate or teach the world how to run itself and its affairs from global warming to the nuclear issue and armaments, Ahmadinejad proves he craves attention like no other, no matter if it is positive or negative. His incredulous bombastic rhetorics of the holocaust and Israel done in regular intervals are just another proof of this. A government that is incapable of performing simple tasks and has run the country’s economy to the ground now entertains ambitions of telling the world how to run itself?
But there’s more to the letter. In his warning about US’ inability to complete the job in Afghanistan and Iraq, he, indirectly points to IR’s influence among the various insurgencies and terrorist groups in those countries, who have consistently opposed the US presence and have been a cause of instability and terror. This was always hinted at in an obscure manner. But this latest statement is among the most direct confessions of involvement in destabilizing forces of Iraq and Afghanistan. The same can be said of IR’s relation to another terrorist group, Hamas in Palestine, who have been a thorn in the side of the peace initiatives between the Israelis and Palestinians. Ahmadinejad says “Obama has no chance in the Israeli-Palestinian talks either. Not only he doesn’t have a chance, but he is not allowed to have one too”. Could that be a veiled admission of interference?
The white house has indicated that it may not answer the letter and I truly believe this is the best tact in this situation. Apart from the fact that Ahmadinejad is still not the top voice in Iran and eventually it is Khamenei, who decides the macro issues, ignoring a petty dictator’s ridiculous cries for his most coveted attention is most effective.
Aside from the audacity of trying to dictate or teach the world how to run itself and its affairs from global warming to the nuclear issue and armaments, Ahmadinejad proves he craves attention like no other, no matter if it is positive or negative. His incredulous bombastic rhetorics of the holocaust and Israel done in regular intervals are just another proof of this. A government that is incapable of performing simple tasks and has run the country’s economy to the ground now entertains ambitions of telling the world how to run itself?
But there’s more to the letter. In his warning about US’ inability to complete the job in Afghanistan and Iraq, he, indirectly points to IR’s influence among the various insurgencies and terrorist groups in those countries, who have consistently opposed the US presence and have been a cause of instability and terror. This was always hinted at in an obscure manner. But this latest statement is among the most direct confessions of involvement in destabilizing forces of Iraq and Afghanistan. The same can be said of IR’s relation to another terrorist group, Hamas in Palestine, who have been a thorn in the side of the peace initiatives between the Israelis and Palestinians. Ahmadinejad says “Obama has no chance in the Israeli-Palestinian talks either. Not only he doesn’t have a chance, but he is not allowed to have one too”. Could that be a veiled admission of interference?
The white house has indicated that it may not answer the letter and I truly believe this is the best tact in this situation. Apart from the fact that Ahmadinejad is still not the top voice in Iran and eventually it is Khamenei, who decides the macro issues, ignoring a petty dictator’s ridiculous cries for his most coveted attention is most effective.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Ahmadinejad's economic follies and blunders continue
A casual glance at the economic performance of Ahmadinejad’s government in the past 5 years, especially last year, makes it easy to fathom the near crippling inflation, rising unemployment and worst of all, the relentless destruction of indigenous industry brought on by Ahmadinejad’s one sided import policies.
The brunt of the administration’s failure and incompetence is borne by the poor class whose numbers are alarmingly rising and expanding to include the lower sections of the middle class also. Increasingly depressing news regarding labourers and factory workers are rife. Whether that is non-payment of their salaries for as long as 9-10 months or imprisonment for merely demanding their rightful salaries to sustain their families. Labour activists have been arrested and sentenced to many years of prison for voicing their grievances against the small but powerful ruling class!
And now comes the news of yet another blow to this ever expanding sector. According to economic experts, the poverty line stands somewhere near $900 per month, while the government officials try to downplay the number and trumpet numbers in the ballpark of $600 to $650. It is hard to miss the tragic sleight of hand that the very same autocrats with their erroneously low statistics, have yet set the minimum wage for the labourers for a family of four at $303. Half of what they deem (erroneously) as the rock bottom line for survival!
A major reason for industry’s inability to pay wages is the same import-craze that floods the market with cheap Chinese and low quality goods of all kinds, stifling home grown production and manufacturing. Even village-industry handicrafts carry the “Made in China” label! The damage is distributed throughout the country, from agricultural products to small & large industry. The pricing discrepancy and the consequent lack of a fair market competition has resulted in abysmal numbers for industrial growth. Even the airbrushed government figures of 6-6.5% for the previous year will be reduced to almost nil or at best 1% for the coming year. At the same time, the inflation rate was officially announced to be around 37%, which puts the real rate somewhere above 40%. We might as well brace ourselves for another series of woes as the regime faces a diminishing market for its oil with countries like Japan, India and even China reducing their purchase of Iranian oil. Not to mention the downgrading of investment by multinational corporations like India’s Reliance and Russia’s Lukoil. Although the Malaysian company, Petronas and the French Total are yet to join in the fray and reduce or stop their supply of refined petrol to Iran. Petronas and Total have the lion's share in supply of refined petrol to Iran.
Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad’s remedy to all these troubles, is to distribute whatever wealth we have left across the world! He has promised a “loan” of more than $100 Million to Ecuador at the incredible interest rate of 0.5% on the eve of their president’s visit to Tehran. In return, Ecuador’s president cancels his visit and sends a lowly mission to Tehran to collect the “loan ”! Ecuador was also the recipient of another $40 Million investment towards the building of two energy sector projects .
Within the last 5 years such “loans” and donations have been extended to countries like Sri Lanka ($1.95 Billion), Bolivia ($225 Million), Venezuela ($1 Billion), Afghanistan ($100 Million), and a plethora of other countries like Nicaragua, Myanmar, Kenya, Tanzania, Gambia, Zimbabwe, St. Vincent, … the list only grows, besides the usual recipients like Syria, Lebanon’s terrorist group Hizbullah and other terrorist entities like the Palestinian Hamas. In Perhaps this foolish largesse is with the aim of buying a “nay” vote in international arguments regarding U.N. resolutions or sanctions against Iran. While Nero merrily fiddles in this way, a large swath of Iranian children, the rightful owners of this wealth are homeless and go to sleep hungry. And Iranian factory workers and labourers continue to struggle to find the means to feed their families while waiting in fast fading hope for their overdue-by-a-year wages.
All this points to an extremely tumultuous year for the illegitimate government and a regime that is losing its scant popularity among their hardcore minority, as more and more of the population is affected by the terrible policies and negligence of people’s dire circumstances.
The brunt of the administration’s failure and incompetence is borne by the poor class whose numbers are alarmingly rising and expanding to include the lower sections of the middle class also. Increasingly depressing news regarding labourers and factory workers are rife. Whether that is non-payment of their salaries for as long as 9-10 months or imprisonment for merely demanding their rightful salaries to sustain their families. Labour activists have been arrested and sentenced to many years of prison for voicing their grievances against the small but powerful ruling class!
And now comes the news of yet another blow to this ever expanding sector. According to economic experts, the poverty line stands somewhere near $900 per month, while the government officials try to downplay the number and trumpet numbers in the ballpark of $600 to $650. It is hard to miss the tragic sleight of hand that the very same autocrats with their erroneously low statistics, have yet set the minimum wage for the labourers for a family of four at $303. Half of what they deem (erroneously) as the rock bottom line for survival!
A major reason for industry’s inability to pay wages is the same import-craze that floods the market with cheap Chinese and low quality goods of all kinds, stifling home grown production and manufacturing. Even village-industry handicrafts carry the “Made in China” label! The damage is distributed throughout the country, from agricultural products to small & large industry. The pricing discrepancy and the consequent lack of a fair market competition has resulted in abysmal numbers for industrial growth. Even the airbrushed government figures of 6-6.5% for the previous year will be reduced to almost nil or at best 1% for the coming year. At the same time, the inflation rate was officially announced to be around 37%, which puts the real rate somewhere above 40%. We might as well brace ourselves for another series of woes as the regime faces a diminishing market for its oil with countries like Japan, India and even China reducing their purchase of Iranian oil. Not to mention the downgrading of investment by multinational corporations like India’s Reliance and Russia’s Lukoil. Although the Malaysian company, Petronas and the French Total are yet to join in the fray and reduce or stop their supply of refined petrol to Iran. Petronas and Total have the lion's share in supply of refined petrol to Iran.
Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad’s remedy to all these troubles, is to distribute whatever wealth we have left across the world! He has promised a “loan” of more than $100 Million to Ecuador at the incredible interest rate of 0.5% on the eve of their president’s visit to Tehran. In return, Ecuador’s president cancels his visit and sends a lowly mission to Tehran to collect the “loan ”! Ecuador was also the recipient of another $40 Million investment towards the building of two energy sector projects .
Within the last 5 years such “loans” and donations have been extended to countries like Sri Lanka ($1.95 Billion), Bolivia ($225 Million), Venezuela ($1 Billion), Afghanistan ($100 Million), and a plethora of other countries like Nicaragua, Myanmar, Kenya, Tanzania, Gambia, Zimbabwe, St. Vincent, … the list only grows, besides the usual recipients like Syria, Lebanon’s terrorist group Hizbullah and other terrorist entities like the Palestinian Hamas. In Perhaps this foolish largesse is with the aim of buying a “nay” vote in international arguments regarding U.N. resolutions or sanctions against Iran. While Nero merrily fiddles in this way, a large swath of Iranian children, the rightful owners of this wealth are homeless and go to sleep hungry. And Iranian factory workers and labourers continue to struggle to find the means to feed their families while waiting in fast fading hope for their overdue-by-a-year wages.
All this points to an extremely tumultuous year for the illegitimate government and a regime that is losing its scant popularity among their hardcore minority, as more and more of the population is affected by the terrible policies and negligence of people’s dire circumstances.
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