A desperate regime

Is the regime getting more desperate as they see the noose tighten around their necks? With the increase in pressures from sanctions becoming a bane of the regime's existence, at least economically, and the newfound hope among the people with the beginning of a strong and popular National Council (Shora Melli) which has Reza Pahlavi's endorsement and perhaps a realization that the regime may be too far from achieving their goal of finally possessing a nuclear weapon, its top echelons especially Seyed Ali Khamenei have become more belligerent and agnostic in their approach and speech. This new aggression and abrasiveness was seen in his threatening words towards Israel and talk of demolition of Tel Aviv and Haifa.

One may see this as foolish saber rattling given the disparity in Iran's military capacity and Israel's (and by default, at the very least American, if not NATO's or some sort of allied forces). But we must not forget the regime sees a great opportunity in creating a war where not only it hopes to rally some support from Iranians but also a chance to use this as a way to cleanse their ranks of unsavory people such as Ahmadinejad's faction or those who may support even a slight deviation from their path. The bonus would be an excuse to insist the miserable economy is not the result of not only sanctions but also war, to the less informed populace mostly in rural areas of the country.

This reckless and destructive tendency to freely threaten our territorial integrity and well being of Iranians only to sustain their regime a few months more, and basically risking nearly everything in Iran in the process is nothing new. But the fear arises from the increasing chances of such conflicts actually coming to pass. This may be pre-empted and a war date may be advanced by a very reckless behavior and action by the more ideological and hardline factions among Sepah (IRGC) and perhaps Khamenei himself.

گفتگوی شاهزاده رضا پهلوی با شهرام همایون

This interview will particularly put to rest all the falacies and spins created after Mr. Pahlavi's interview with the German Focus Online magazine, where the German media outlet twisted and spun his remarks and comments to the extent that many regime apologists and a few others who are intent on distraction and weakening of formation of a truly national committee, use these very spins and falsified comments to create a front against Pahlavi and therefore, the creation of the national coalition.

Regime change or free elections?

The matter of “free elections” versus “regime change” has been circulating heavily among various opposition groups. I believe the matter of regime change is quite clear and self-explanatory. However the doubts arise when we talk about “free elections” in the Islamic republic under the control of Khamenei and his death-squad, IRGC. The proponents of free elections bring talking points such as observation and conduction of these elections by an impartial international body like the United Nations, permission for creation and campaign of political parties and so on and so forth. They claim in such a situation, the outcome will only lead to dissolution of the present regime … therefore it is necessary to keep any talk of regime change out of any dialogue.  In other words, a soft or velvet revolution amidst the present regime where through popular vote and will it makes way for a democratic government.

But what one claims based on a hypothesis is one thing, actual past experience and practicality of the issue is a whole different bowl of soup altogether. Countless elections in the past 33 years only point to one thing which is the regime’s incapacity and unwillingness to cede control to the people of Iran. From the way it conducts the process of election to the method of vote count and further announcements, all prove this fact. But this is besides the clinching point that such a regime that doesn’t hesitate to resort to murder and torture of any voice of dissent or call for minimal freedom and sees its survival only through spread of fear and violence at any cost will never accept to place its fate and existence on a process “free election”, especially if conducted by an international body, where it knows the result would mean its demise.

How are these “reformists” planning to convince the likes of Khamenei to agree to such a fate that only leads to his fall and end of his beloved Islamic Republic? Surely these “intelligent” minds of the reformist camp have considered this matter, given their background of being a part of this regime for many years and decades. Surely they are privy of how desperately the regime has clung to power and what extents it is willing to go in order to retain this seat of power and survive. What is their plan in cajoling a murderer to not only surrender, but also open himself up for punishment for decades of crime?

Therefore, while the talk of “free election” is a very attractive and civilized prospect, at least on paper, unfortunately reality tells a very different tale. Chances are the Mullahs in Iran will vehemently resist and refuse to allow even a glimmer of hope for change in the political and social structure of Iran and outright refuse to allow such an election to take place. What then? What is the plan-B of the reformists to find a way out of this misery for the people of Iran? Wait and see? Again? Just as they did during Khatami's era? Therefore allow more time for these parasites to extract as much life and resources out of Iran and Iranians?

Are they not aware their irrational insistence on an impossibility only feeds into the division of the opposition forces and the only winner in this is the criminal regime in Iran?

Iran's state run and state controlled TV station, IRIB, announced the result of a poll conducted among the people of Iran on the subject of the regime's nuclear program. The surprising thing (depending on which side you belong to) is they actually pronounced an overwhelming majority of people (about 63%. More on this later) did not want the continuation of the nuclear program. That was surprising if one had followed the lies and false claims of the very same media on the popularity of the program among the common folk.

But given the start of the more severe sanctions on Iran's oil by the European Union and a few other states by July First that has led to drastic cuts in purchase of Iranian oil as well as insuring of its oil and oil tankers by several countries, like India and even China, one may not be as surprised to see the regime buckle and make a desperate attempt to fabricate an excuse to give in and surrender to the will of the international community and stop its nuclear ambitions. It would have been a great loss of face if they revealed the truth that these sanctions are and will be breaking the back of Iran's economy and that is reason enough for them to give up enrichment of Uranium plans. So they resort to the more immature tact of fabricating a popular poll among the citizens who made the decision to force the government to give in and stop the process.

This sheds light on the severe impact the sanctions are having on the revenues of the regime. In recent days several high ranking clergy and officials, including the supreme leader, Khamenei, have tried to distract and divert the blame for Iran's crumbling economy and its currency in free-fall (Dollar breached another barrier of 2060 Toomans!) on the evil western machinery that is the cause of all the economic misery in Iran. Certainly not their own incompetence or disastrous policies on import and its impact on indigenous industry and agriculture! So now they are scrambling to divert the blame on all and sundry because they know when we feel the full impact of the new sanctions, people may not be in mood to listen to excuses or propaganda.


On the issue of regime's love for "63%":
What is this love and insistence on the number 63 by the regime? Cant they come up with another number? It seems this number appeals to them as a legitimate and convincing enough to show support of people for their decisions, elections, ...! What, a number lower than 63 like 60 does not convey enough support of the people and 67 may be too much of a gamble and may expose their zeal in fabrication?

Ahmadinejad was supposed to have received about 63% of the people's votes. Something that a very large majority of people had problem accepting and a number that was talked about weeks BEFORE the start of those elections!

Next was the parliamentary elections which was generally boycotted by the people (fresh from their wounds inflicted from the recent presidential farse of an election), that never held the IRIB or the government back in claiming about 63% participation by the people. Something that they translate as popular support of the people for the system!

More cloak and dagger offensives from Israel

Few Israeli officials’ recent claims and even tepid statements with regards to Iran’s present nuclear capability and its future threat served to surprise many in the Middle East and the world for that matter. It was indeed such a sudden pivot from the more hardline, dogged offensive stance they have taken in the past few years. For example a Israeli military top brass claiming Israel should not be too worried about Iran’s capability came as a shock to pundits who were used to the contrary views coming out of Israel, always making too much of a little matter. But the new revelation that a newer, more dangerous and sophisticated virus has been unleashed mainly on Iran, which has been gathering info and data since 2010 just puts all the sudden “change of heart” into a new perspective.

The virus, known as “Flame” is found to be extremely complex and sophisticated that narrows its creation to only less than a handful of countries, one of which is Israel.

Therefore, inspite of contradictory statements, some shouted, some merely whispered from Israel, it can be safely assumed that they are hard at work at delaying and interrupting the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions ... albeit clandestinely and through covert ops. This may not be a bad news for the Iranian population (and not very good for the regime) as such covert actions serve to delay the more threatening and dangerous option of going to war which would mean human casualties.