Sunday, July 11, 2010

Ahmadinejad's presidency in peril?

Will Ahmadinejad finish his term? Will he even last the next 12 months may not be the first thing that comes to one's mind having seen the brutal crack down and the barbaric style of dealing with any manner of dissent, even the most civil. But it may not be as far fetched as some may have thought so.

A week ago, one of the members of the parliament, Mr. Palizdar, a notorious cleric, who was among the supporting cast in Ahmadinejad’s re-election campaign’s scenario and made ground breaking revelations accusing Ahmadinejad of creating false evidence and untrue claims of corruption against his rival candidates, Mr. Mousavi and Karroubi and their close supporters, made equally significant statements about his role and the smear campaign during Ahmadinejad's elections. The same tact was employed against Hashemi Rafsanjani and his ally, Nategh Nouri during Ahmadinejad’s first campaign for presidency.

Palizdar, a very close ally of Ahmadinejad at the time, was in fact, in charge of manufacturing the false accusations and defamation, who was promised a cabinet position in return. Having felt betrayed, he turns to the media to reveal the machinations behind the scenes.

Following these events, Ahmad Tavakoli, who is yet another conservative MP, brought up the matter of ‘impeachment of the president’ and in a statement declared with two third majority of the votes, the parliament can impeach Ahmadinejad for his blatant refusal to uphold the laws set by the lawmakers.

Based on the constitution, impeachment is possible. But in reality, and considering the deep turmoil the regime has been put through, post election and the ever increasing strain placed on various elements of regime, be it Khamenei’s factions or Ahmadinejad’s and IRGC’s, the key figures such as the supreme leader may try to step in and attempt to prevent the fractures getting deeper and may overtly or covertly order the halt to the proceedings.

But even if that comes to pass, what has happened is still ground breaking and may have prepared the ground work for an eventual dissociation of the two major factions, Khamenei’s and Ahmadinejad’s should matters become intolerable and there be a need for sacrifice. It is many pundits’ belief that with continuing pressures on the regime, there will come a time that Ahmadinejad will become a dead weight to Khamenei, and will have to be sacrificed for the greater good of the regime.

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