Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Which entity or group gains the most from the attack on the British embassy?

Given the historical precedence of this event (79’s US embassy occupation) and the fact that nearly all those students who participated in that event have expressed their regret and admitted the costly price Iran has paid for their thoughtless act (many of whom are now in the prisons of this regime, under pressure), nothing good ever comes out of such acts for the country and its people. So who would be the ultimate winner of this political fiasco?

Aside from the war-mongers in the west who will definitely use this to step up their lobby for war with Iran, Internally, I believe it is the IRGC (the repressive Revolutionary Guard Corp), even far more than the paranoid supreme leader or the ultra conservatives, who will benefit from this mess. With more isolation of Iran, IRGC’s hands would be even deeper in matters like smuggling of goods, trade deals and contracts. With their hands in nearly every trade agreement with the outside world, as well as the now-proven countless smuggling ports under their control, they would strengthen their monopoly over Iranian markets.

And we must not forget an eventual war would also strengthen the hardliners in the regime as well as serve the goals of IRGC, whose commanders have been provoking and itching for a fight with outlandish daily statements of how they can crush this enemy or cripple that country that only find purchase among the more immature and delusional sects of people. An example of which, below, where Sardar Naghdi of Basij forces boasts about attacking American forces everywhere believing US's inability to respond or retaliate:

Not to mention this attack serves in delivering a significant blow to the Ahmadinejad’s faction who were busy with their foreign relation initiatives, trying to somehow carve a tiny bit of support to wedge open Iran's doors to the rest of the world.

However, the most ridiculous is the reaction and statements of some of the western countries who still have not understood it is impossible to make this regime see sense or be a responsible member of international community. Some of these politicians and officials still hold onto their incredulous and naïve stance that conversation and dialogue with this regime would result in anything near normalcy of relations or behavoral change of the Islamic officials! As if all their efforts in recent years have borne fruit or made any dent to the ruling mullahs’ attitude or belligerence.

They seem quite incapable of comprehending this regime is beyond reform and the only way to achieve peace in the region and prevent a nuclear arms race in this volatile Middle East is to have an Iran that is democratic, run by its people and accountable to its people. With a responsible government in Iran to its people, all these points of contention with the region and the world will automatically be solved. So instead of trying to do the impossible, which is making this theocratic, totalitarian regime see sense, all the world has to do is put its support behind the democratic opposition groups.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

History repeats itself ... unfortunately

This was like history unfolding itself right in front of our eyes. A group of Basiji thugs and hooligans, under the guise of “university students” attacked and swarmed the British embassy in Tehran in response to Britain’s talk of sanctioning Iran’s Central Bank as a part of their comprehensive effort to rein in the regime’s pursuit of nuclear bomb.

Let me start with the fact that usually almost none of these people are ‘students’ (defined as individuals in pursuit of science and knowledge in an institute of higher learning). These are the militia and pressure groups routinely used by the regime and factions within the regime (mostly on the side of Khamenei and ultra-conservative mullahs) as their fascistic arm to do the jobs that cant be done legally or under the umbrella of law. Even if some of these individuals possess a University Id, they are those who have been strategically ‘placed’ in the institutes to monitor and spy and if needed, be the insiders for the regime to ‘handle’ genuine students’ movements from within. Therefore labeling these purchased hooligans ‘students’ is the regime’s way of discrediting the real students and student movements.

It came as no surprise when one of the first photos that came out of this event showed a well known IRGC commander - Qods Force division, a certain Karim Jalali who was immediately identified by the Iranian activists and exposed here.

The second matter of note is to address the ambiguity of the foreign press who, as usual, are muddled and still naïve enough to not have understood the mechanics of politics in Iran. Someone with a little more time invested in Iranian politics would easily spot the factions behind this (no matter how desperately these ‘students’ want to claim they are not connected to any political faction). Khamenei and the ultra-conservatives and the ruthless IRGC stand to gain the most from this as this method of Political-Suicide suits their agenda of isolating Iran even more as well as Khamenei’s inherent paranoia of everything and everyone especially the threat of improving the relationships with the west. So despite the insistence by the networks and pundits, this move has been well planned, orchestrated and supported by the supreme leader’s gang.

And if there was any need for more proof, we have the security forces who were in charge of protecting the sovereignty of embassies merely stood aside and became bystanders as the small horde of Basiji militia attacked and invaded the embassy. The same security forces who showed extreme brutality and barbarism in their methods of dealing with un-armed innocent Iranian protesters on the streets  during the disputed elections demonstrations, were overwhelmed and incapacitated by a gang of 250-300 ‘students’? Really?

After a while and much damage to the compound, the security forces managed to expel most of the attackers (regime’s media relations must have been very active) only to be ‘over-powered’ once more and this time there was talk of taking 6 people as hostage. Although the news on this hostage taking has been confirmed and denied, which leaves it an ambiguous matter to be resolved later. The report of the 6 hostages was seen in the state agencies, but were immediately removed, most probably by higher order as there must have been some frantic political haggling and arm wrestling between the conservatives and Ahmadinejad’s group.

On the international front this bode very badly for Iran as well as the regime. The European Union was the first to condemn this act with promise of further and harsher response against Iran. Did the regime strategists even consider the ramifications of such a move and their relationship to Europe where they have extensive trade deals with?

You know Iran was in real trouble when their usual staunch allies and partners-in-crime, Russia and even China (the unscrupulous government that usually turns a blind eye to nearly any atrocity and crime as long as there is some profit, direct or indirect, for them) condemned this act. This also plays right into the hands of the neo-cons and the war-mongers who have been banging their war drums lately, but with this, the drums will be much lauder than usual.