Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Which entity or group gains the most from the attack on the British embassy?

Given the historical precedence of this event (79’s US embassy occupation) and the fact that nearly all those students who participated in that event have expressed their regret and admitted the costly price Iran has paid for their thoughtless act (many of whom are now in the prisons of this regime, under pressure), nothing good ever comes out of such acts for the country and its people. So who would be the ultimate winner of this political fiasco?

Aside from the war-mongers in the west who will definitely use this to step up their lobby for war with Iran, Internally, I believe it is the IRGC (the repressive Revolutionary Guard Corp), even far more than the paranoid supreme leader or the ultra conservatives, who will benefit from this mess. With more isolation of Iran, IRGC’s hands would be even deeper in matters like smuggling of goods, trade deals and contracts. With their hands in nearly every trade agreement with the outside world, as well as the now-proven countless smuggling ports under their control, they would strengthen their monopoly over Iranian markets.

And we must not forget an eventual war would also strengthen the hardliners in the regime as well as serve the goals of IRGC, whose commanders have been provoking and itching for a fight with outlandish daily statements of how they can crush this enemy or cripple that country that only find purchase among the more immature and delusional sects of people. An example of which, below, where Sardar Naghdi of Basij forces boasts about attacking American forces everywhere believing US's inability to respond or retaliate:

Not to mention this attack serves in delivering a significant blow to the Ahmadinejad’s faction who were busy with their foreign relation initiatives, trying to somehow carve a tiny bit of support to wedge open Iran's doors to the rest of the world.

However, the most ridiculous is the reaction and statements of some of the western countries who still have not understood it is impossible to make this regime see sense or be a responsible member of international community. Some of these politicians and officials still hold onto their incredulous and naïve stance that conversation and dialogue with this regime would result in anything near normalcy of relations or behavoral change of the Islamic officials! As if all their efforts in recent years have borne fruit or made any dent to the ruling mullahs’ attitude or belligerence.

They seem quite incapable of comprehending this regime is beyond reform and the only way to achieve peace in the region and prevent a nuclear arms race in this volatile Middle East is to have an Iran that is democratic, run by its people and accountable to its people. With a responsible government in Iran to its people, all these points of contention with the region and the world will automatically be solved. So instead of trying to do the impossible, which is making this theocratic, totalitarian regime see sense, all the world has to do is put its support behind the democratic opposition groups.

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